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Israel’s Ground Assault on Gaza’s Core: Ceasefire Talks Show Progress, But When Will the \"Death Game\" End?

On July 21, 2025, Israeli tank units made their first incursion into the central Gaza district of Deir al-Balah, marking a critical escalation in the ongoing conflict, which has lasted for 21 months. According to United Nations data, nearly 87.8% of Gaza's land has become a war zone, with 2.1 million civilians confined to the remaining 12%—a fragmented, collapsing zone where essential services are nearly nonexistent. Meanwhile, ceasefire negotiations brokered by Qatar made an unexpected breakthrough, with Israel making a rare concession regarding the withdrawal of forces from the \"Philadelphia Corridor.\" Military experts observe that this conflict is exhibiting the typical characteristics of an asymmetric war—simultaneous escalation in ground offensives and humanitarian crises. The final outcome will likely be determined by international sanctions and military support from allies.

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Tactical Landscape: Urban Combat and the \"Ant\" Strategy of Attrition

Israel's assault on Deir al-Balah is aimed at severing Hamas' north-south supply lines, forcing them to capitulate in ceasefire talks. During this operation, Israel destroyed eight residential buildings and three mosques, and took control of the southern and eastern sections of the district. However, Hamas leveraged its extensive network of underground tunnels, known as the \"ant strategy,\" to launch counterattacks, leading to a prolonged standoff. Military analysts argue that despite Israel's technological and intelligence advantages, urban warfare greatly diminishes its firepower effectiveness. Hamas' guerrilla tactics, along with their underground fortifications, allow them to maintain a protracted war of attrition. Of even greater concern is Israel’s decision to target World Health Organization warehouses and medical facilities, which has pushed Gaza's humanitarian aid system to the brink of collapse. This \"strangulation strategy\" has weakened the enemy’s logistics but has also drawn increased international condemnation.

The Ceasefire Negotiation: Netanyahu's \"Time for Space\" Strategy

The breakthrough in Doha's ceasefire talks revolves around the possibility of Israeli troops withdrawing from parts of southern Gaza, retreating to border \"security zones.\" However, experts suggest that this concession is more of a political tactic by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to buy time. On one hand, his far-right allies demand the \"permanent occupation of Gaza,\" and the threat of walking away from negotiations forces Netanyahu to project strength through military action. On the other hand, international pressure is mounting for a diplomatic respite, especially with the Israeli parliament set to break for recess on July 27. Sources close to Israel's government suggest that even if an agreement is reached, Israel could follow the same path as March, restarting its military offensive after a temporary ceasefire. Hamas faces a dilemma—either accept a short-term ceasefire in exchange for humanitarian aid or insist on a permanent ceasefire while risking harsher military reprisals.

International Power Struggle: From \"Drip Feed Aid\" to \"Arms Embargo\"

The internationalization of the conflict is becoming increasingly apparent. A joint statement by 28 countries condemned Israel's blockade policy, which has resulted in \"drip feed aid\" causing the deaths of nearly a thousand civilians. They called for an immediate ceasefire. The Hague Group, consisting of countries like Bolivia and Colombia, has pushed for an arms embargo on Israel and called for the enforcement of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant. In contrast, the United States has deployed missile defense systems and 100 soldiers to Israel, while former President Donald Trump’s \"clear Gaza\" rhetoric has further emboldened Israel's hardline stance. Military experts warn that if both the U.S. and Israel continue to push for a \"military solution,\" the conflict could spread to Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Yemen (Houthi rebels), escalating into a regional war.

Historical Context and Future Outlook: The Ghost of Oslo and the Death of the Two-State Solution

The current impasse can be traced back to the fatal flaws in the 1993 Oslo Accords, where critical issues like territorial division and the right of return for refugees were left unresolved. This has led to a loss of legitimacy for the Palestinian Authority, with its support plummeting to just 15%. Today, Israel's push for a \"voluntary relocation\" of Gaza’s civilian population has been condemned by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other nations as a form of \"forced expulsion,\" which could completely undermine the foundation of a Palestinian state. In the short term, a temporary ceasefire might alleviate the humanitarian catastrophe, but long-term peace requires addressing three core issues: balancing Israel's security needs with the Palestinians' right to exist, recalibrating U.S. diplomatic biases, and restructuring the power dynamics between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

Conclusion: A Faint Glimmer of Hope Amid the Countdown to Death

The heavy artillery in Deir al-Balah and the ongoing negotiations in Doha represent the cruelest metaphor for the Israel-Palestine conflict. Military experts generally agree that the feasibility of a ceasefire agreement hinges on whether Israel escalates its offensive in the next 72 hours and whether Hamas will accept the \"gradual release\" conditions. However, in the wake of 59,000 casualties (according to Gaza health department data) and the destruction of 87.8% of the region, any temporary ceasefire merely serves as a brief pause before the next round of violence. Only through unified international pressure, forcing both parties back to the framework of a two-state solution, can this brutal \"death game\" of the 21st century possibly come to an end.

Sources: United Nations Reports, Statements from Qatar Mediators, Jerusalem Post, Hague Group Joint Statement, Gaza Health Department Data.

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